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Referral dependency: how much of your year rides on referrals?

Referrals are the best leads you’ll get, and the ones you can’t turn up. Find out how much revenue depends on them, and what a slow year would cost.

By the BlueSmith team · Updated

At a glance

You enter
  • Signed jobs per year
  • Jobs that came from referrals
  • Average project value
  • If referrals dropped by
You get
  • Revenue at risk per year
  • Referral revenue per year
  • Jobs to replace from other channels
How the math works
  • Referral jobs and revenue
  • Jobs to replace
  • Revenue at risk
  • Example numbers, not a benchmark
What it costs
Free. No signup, no email. Arithmetic on your own numbers, not a promise of results.
70%
30%

Revenue at risk per year: $315,000

Revenue at risk per year$315,000
Referral revenue per year
$1,050,000
Jobs to replace from other channels
13

60 jobs a year at $25,000, 70% from referrals, modeling a 30% drop.

See what we’d build for these numbers

Starts with example numbers. Change them to yours. Arithmetic only, not a promise of results.

HOW IT WORKS

Three steps. Your numbers.

  1. 01

    Enter your numbers

    Enter your signed jobs per year and the share that came from referrals.

  2. 02

    Watch it recalculate

    Add your average project value and the referral drop you want to test.

  3. 03

    Use the answer

    Use the jobs-to-replace number to size the channel you’d build alongside referrals.

How the math works

Referral jobs and revenue

Signed jobs per year × referral share gives your referral jobs. × average project value gives the revenue they bring each year.

Jobs to replace

Referral jobs × the drop you enter. These are the jobs another channel would have to win to keep the year whole.

Revenue at risk

Jobs to replace × average project value. It’s the yearly revenue tied to the drop you chose.

Example numbers, not a benchmark

40 jobs a year, 60% from referrals: 24 referral jobs. At $30,000 each, $720,000 a year. A 25% drop means 6 jobs to replace and $180,000 at risk.

KEEP GOING

Use it with these.

STRAIGHT ANSWERS

Questions we hear.

What drop should I model?

One you’ve already lived through. Compare your slowest referral year with your best and use that gap. If you don’t know it, try a few drops and see where the number starts to hurt.

Which jobs count as referrals?

Homeowners who came because someone sent them: past customers, neighbors, suppliers, other trades. Decide whether repeat customers count, then stay consistent so the share means something.

Is a high referral share a bad sign?

No. It means people trust your work. The risk is that you can’t control when referrals arrive, so a slow stretch has nothing behind it.

How would I replace those jobs?

With one source you can turn up or down, built and measured before you need it. Know what a booked estimate costs from it while referrals are still strong.

Numbers are the start. Let’s build the system.

Seven questions. Two minutes. See the one part of your engine holding your projects back.

Show me where I’m losing jobsFree 2-minute assessment · No pitch, no obligation

Avg response time 2.5 minutes