- Leads needed = jobs ÷ close rate ÷ show rate ÷ booking rate.
- No-shows are a step most contractors forget to count.
- Raising any one rate reduces the leads you have to buy.
- Your crew’s capacity sets the ceiling on jobs, and so on leads.
Count every drop-off
Between a new inquiry and a signed contract, homeowners fall out at three points. Some never book. Some book and don’t show. Some sit through the estimate and don’t sign.
Most lead targets skip the middle step. A booked estimate that nobody shows up for counts on the calendar but not in the close rate.
Worked example (example numbers, not a benchmark)
You want 4 more signed jobs a month. You close 30% of the estimates you actually run, so you need about 13.3 held estimates (4 ÷ 30%). About 85% of booked estimates actually happen, so you need about 15.7 booked (13.3 ÷ 85%). Four in ten leads book, so you need about 39 leads (15.7 ÷ 40%).
Run it forward to check: 40 leads, 16 booked, about 13.6 held, about 4 signed. Round up. Fractions of homeowners don’t sign contracts.
Better rates beat more leads
In the same example, raise the booking rate from 40% to 50% and the same 4 jobs need about 31 leads instead of 39. Nothing changed in the ads. The homeowners were answered faster and asked better questions.
Show rate and close rate work the same way. That’s why buying more leads is often the expensive fix.
- Booking rate: faster response, qualifying questions, self-booking
- Show rate: confirmations and reminders before the visit
- Close rate: the right homeowners, a clear proposal, steady follow-up
Capacity sets the ceiling
The right number of leads is the one that fills the jobs your crew can deliver at the quality you want. Past that point, more leads create a backlog, longer start dates, and homeowners who drift to someone who can start sooner.
