- Start with jobs wanted, not a percentage of revenue.
- Jobs ÷ close rate = estimates. Estimates ÷ booking rate = leads. Leads × CPL = ad budget.
- Budget ad spend and agency fees as separate lines.
- Plan a testing period before you judge results.
Start with the jobs your crew can take
The right budget depends on how many more jobs you want and can actually deliver. Buying demand your crew can’t handle burns money and reputation.
Pick a realistic number of extra signed jobs per month. That number drives everything else.
Work backward: jobs → estimates → leads → budget
Use your own close rate and booking rate if you track them. If you don’t, start tracking now and use conservative guesses until you have real numbers.
- Estimates needed = signed jobs wanted ÷ close rate
- Leads needed = estimates needed ÷ lead-to-estimate rate
- Monthly ad budget = leads needed × expected cost per lead
- Ad spend as a share of revenue = ad budget ÷ (signed jobs × average project value)
A worked example (example numbers, not a benchmark)
Say you want 4 more signed jobs a month at an average of $25,000. You close 25% of estimates, so you need 16 estimates (4 ÷ 25%).
Four in ten leads book an estimate, so you need 40 leads (16 ÷ 40%). If leads cost about $75, that’s $3,000 a month in ad spend (40 × $75).
Those 4 jobs bring in $100,000. Ad spend comes to 3% of it. Now you can decide whether that works for your margins instead of guessing.
Ad spend and agency fees are different lines
Ad spend goes to the platform, like Meta or Google, and buys the attention. An agency fee pays for the people who write and film the ads, build the pages, run the campaigns, and handle follow-up.
Keep them separate so you can see both. Ask any agency whether they mark up ad spend, and make sure you can see the ad account yourself. When you judge results, add the fee to the ad spend to get your true cost per signed job.
Plan for a ramp and a testing period
New campaigns need time and data. The first stretch is for finding which ads, audiences, and offers bring homeowners who book. Expect cost per lead to move around while that happens.
Big-ticket jobs often sign weeks after the first inquiry. Early on, judge spend on booked estimates and cost per booked estimate. Judge it on signed jobs once enough estimates have had time to close.
- Set the test budget and the time frame before you start
- Decide which number you’ll judge it on
- Agree on what you’ll change if it misses
When to raise, hold, or cut
Raise the budget when cost per booked estimate is under your break-even and the crew has room. Hold when the calendar is full. Fix before you spend more when leads come in but estimates don’t. More spend won’t solve a booking or follow-up problem.
