- Value replacement leads and service calls separately. They’re different businesses.
- Heat-wave leads come in cheap and buy fast from whoever arrives first.
- Your comfort advisor’s close rate moves the affordable CPL more than the ads do.
- Recheck the math whenever your system mix or average ticket changes.
Two kinds of HVAC leads
Service calls keep the trucks moving. A no-cool call might end in a $300 repair, a maintenance plan, or a replacement conversation. Planned replacements are a different buyer: someone whose system is old and loud, who has time to compare options.
If both arrive through the same form and land in the same report, your cost per lead blends a cheap service ticket with a five-figure install. Split them at the first question and you can price each one honestly.
Price the replacement lead on its own
For replacements, the inputs are your average installed system price, the gross margin on installs, how many replacement leads book an in-home visit, and how many of those visits your comfort advisor closes.
Service-call value runs through dispatch, memberships, and repair margin. Work that out separately if you advertise for it. Most contractors who buy ads for growth are buying the replacement side.
Worked example (example numbers, not a benchmark)
We use the same example inputs as our HVAC page. Swap in your installed price and close rate.
A system replacement averages $14,000 at a 40% gross margin: $5,600 in gross profit. Set aside 10% of that to sell the system: $560 per install. Your comfort advisor closes 35% of in-home visits, so a booked visit can cost up to $196 ($560 × 35%). Four in ten replacement leads book a visit, so the break-even is $78.40 per replacement lead ($196 × 40%).
Change the close rate to 45% and the same math allows $100.80 per lead. That’s why the in-home visit matters as much as the ad.
Why heat-wave leads look cheaper than they are
When it’s triple digits outside, inquiries flood in and each one costs less to get. Most of those homeowners need cool air today. They’ll take whoever has a truck free, and many end up as repairs rather than replacements.
Leads from spring and fall usually cost more and close on different terms. The homeowner is planning, comparing heat pumps and furnaces, and asking about rebates. Judge each season on cost per installed system, not on how full the inbox looked.
What to track
Keep replacement and service numbers in separate columns from day one.
- Replacement-only cost per lead, service requests stripped out
- Cost per booked in-home visit
- Comfort advisor close rate, by lead source
- Cost per installed system, by month
