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HVAC lead value: what’s a system replacement lead worth?

A no-cool call in July and a planned swap in March aren’t the same lead. Put a number on the install leads that keep your crews busy.

By the BlueSmith team · Updated

At a glance

You enter
  • Average project value
  • Gross margin
  • Leads that become booked estimates
  • Estimates you close
You get
  • Each lead is worth (revenue)
  • Gross profit per lead
  • Leads per signed job
How the math works
  • Revenue and profit per lead
  • Run hot months and mild months separately
  • Example (not a benchmark)
What it costs
Free. No signup, no email. Arithmetic on your own numbers, not a promise of results.
40%
40%
35%

Each lead is worth (revenue): $1,960

Each lead is worth (revenue)$1,960
Gross profit per lead
$784
Leads per signed job
7.1

$14,000 project, 40% margin, 40% of leads booked, 35% of estimates closed.

See what we’d build for these numbers

Starts with example numbers. Change them to yours. Arithmetic only, not a promise of results.

HOW IT WORKS

Three steps. Your numbers.

  1. 01

    Enter your numbers

    Enter your average installed system value and gross margin.

  2. 02

    Watch it recalculate

    Add the share of replacement leads that book an in-home estimate.

  3. 03

    Use the answer

    Add the share of those estimates that turn into an install.

How the math works

Revenue and profit per lead

Installed value × booking rate × close rate = revenue per lead. × gross margin = gross profit per lead.

Run hot months and mild months separately

Emergency replacement leads in a heat wave tend to book and close differently from planned swaps in spring or fall. Enter each season’s rates to see the gap.

Example (not a benchmark)

$14,000 system, 40% book, 35% close: $1,960 revenue per lead. At a 40% margin, $784 gross profit per lead. About 7.1 leads per install.

KEEP GOING

Use it with these.

STRAIGHT ANSWERS

Questions we hear.

Is this what my HVAC leads will bring in?

No. It’s arithmetic on your own inputs, and the defaults are examples, not industry numbers.

Should service calls go in here?

Not mixed in. A repair call has a much smaller ticket. Run service leads on their own if you want their value, and keep this one for replacements.

What about maintenance plans and future service?

They aren’t in the math. If a new install usually brings a plan or repeat work, the real value of the lead is higher than what this shows.

Why does speed matter more in HVAC?

A homeowner without cooling books whoever can come first. Slow callbacks pull your booking rate down, and that drags the lead value with it.

Numbers are the start. Let’s build the system.

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